2/3/18

Reese Kaplan -- Time to Talk About the Big C


Few things in life are absolutes.  There’s seldom a pure black or white.  Wading through the 50 or more shades of gray make for some interesting fodder on these cold February nights.  Lately there’s been a lot of chatter about the big “C” word.  No, it's not cancer nor one of George Carlin's 7 words you can't say on TV.  It's collusion.   Whether or not it’s taking place, the fact remains that the MLB owners have a rather checkered history when it comes to avoiding actions that would appear to suggest they had agreed to tactics to suppress the players’ salaries.  Already one agent, Brodie Van Wagenen of CAA, has hinted that he would like to see a players' strike in response to the inaction in the free agent market during this off-season.


Back in 1968 Executive Director of the Major League Baseball Players Association, Marvin Miller, got the owners and players to agree to language that has been in every Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) ever since, “Players shall not act in concert with other Players and Clubs shall not act in concert with other Clubs.”

However, despite contractually agreeing to this aboveboard means of ensuring a level playing field for player salary negotiations in the free agent class, not once, not twice, but six times the owners have had formal accusations of collusion levied against them. 


Back in 1984 then MLB Commissioner Peter Ueberroth chided owners in a closed door meeting about how much money they had been spending on free agents.  He also suggested that long term contracts were a bad investment.  The message came through loud and clear. 

The first alleged collusion occurred between the 1985 and 1986 seasons when there were 35 players who filed for free agency but only 4 actually jumped ship to a new team.  It was proven at one point that White Sox owner Jerry Reinsdorf personally called George Steinbrenner to get him to withdraw the offer he was planning to make star catcher Carlton Fisk.  At that time teams also reduced rosters from 25 to 24 players to cut payroll costs.  The complaint filed by then MLBPA Chairman Donald Fehr is referred to now as Collusion I.

It got worse the following year with the majority of free agents getting just a single year contract or being retained by their former clubs due to the lack of alternative opportunities.  Baseball salaries went down across the board.  In February of 1987 the MLBPA filed a second grievance known as Collusion II and the arbitrator who heard the case ruled in the players’ favor.

The owners got a little more sophisticated the following year, creating a central repository to store the prospective contract information being offered by whom to which free agents.  That action resulted in a Collusion III grievance which ultimately resulted in a huge payback to the players as well as many being granted “New Look” free agent status where they could offer their services to new teams but still hold onto their existing contract if no one met their salary demands.  Kirk Gibson is an example of a player who joined the Dodgers during this period.


Ultimately both new Commissioner Fay Vincent and former MLBPA head Marvin Miller agreed with the ruling that the owners were indeed guilty of collusion.  Vincent said, “The single biggest reality you guys have to face up to is collusion. You stole $280 million from the players, and the players are unified to a man around that issue, because you got caught and many of you are still involved.”

You’d think the owners would have learned from their expensive mistakes, but almost getting away with saving $280+ million was far too attractive to keep them from trying once again.  During the 2002 and 2003 seasons accusations of nefarious behavior on the part of the owners were once again levied and the owners agreed to pay some of their luxury tax revenues back to the players (but never conceded why they were doing so). 

Some individual grievances were filed about both Alex Rodriguez and Barry Bonds but in these two cases nothing was ever proven. 


So now we fast forward to the 2017/2018 off-season and most of the top free agents remain unemployed.  Dodgers closer Kanley Jansen has been quite vocal in suggesting the players may need to go on strike to force the owners to come to the table to negotiate in good faith.  He was also incensed at the way in which the new Marlins ownership is doing everything possible to lower payroll in Miami, “That is something we might have to address, so you don’t have a lot of Miami Marlins doing this. Maybe it’s an adjustment for us, as the players’ union. Maybe we have to go on strike, to be honest with you. That’s how I feel about it."


Conversely, Brandon Moss feels that the players themselves have created the current environment.  “What we’re saying is we have the right to bargain and set our price just like the owners have the right to meet that price. What we’ve done is we’ve incentivized owners and we’ve incentivized teams to say, ‘We don’t want to meet that price, it costs us too much to meet that price. It costs us draft picks. It costs us international signing money. It costs us all these different things. We’re going to have to pay a tax if we go over a certain threshold that we’ve set ourselves.’ I just think that by doing all those things, what we have done is we’ve given the owners and teams and franchises an excuse to not pay top free agents. To have a reason to say, ‘No, we don’t want to go after these guys because this is why.’

Needless to say, Moss is not a very popular person right now among the players (and the free agents in particular), but he raises an interesting point.  If it is in the owners’ best interest to wait out the market, why shouldn’t they do that?  Where it gets hazy is whether or not they have met and agreed to adapt this strategy across the board.  Some will assert that owners merely have access to more advanced metrics and use that information in making their decisions.  Others say that the issue is that players are not paid enough at the beginning of their careers hence the big paydays of the past for their declining years are simply bad business. It's easy to cite a great many 9 figure contracts that went south by year 3 or 4.  Look no further than David Wright.  

So what do you think?  Why is the hot stove so uncharacteristically frigid?

10 comments:

Tom Brennan said...

Two ways to look at it: owners in many years fall over each other to sign guys to mega deals. Many go bust (e.g. Wright). Maybe commonsense settles in now and then.

Trump tax rate cuts presumably will benefit owners (at least ones with net income taxable income) so they have more to spend (waste?) but are spending (wasting?) less.

Mack Ade said...

Did you actually remember all this?

Wow.

As for any collusion this year, I don't see it being done... 'officially'... but I know owners and General Managers talk to each other and the common thing they all share is the sharp rising of salaries in this game.

Football has sort of handed to baseball the chance to strengthen its ranking as the top sport in the business.

Will all these guys be playing baseball this season? Yes,

Will it be in April? Maybe not.



Mack Ade said...

http://www.latimes.com/sports/mlb/la-sp-major-league-baseball-players-20180202-story.html

Tom Brennan said...

A strike would NOT be looked at favorably, as many of the same NFL fans now turned off could become similarly turned off due to a "what is wrong with rich pro players?" view. Strike at your own risk...there is very little grace for it with fans these days.

Robb said...

I dont think its collusion per se, but group think and some realities. A lot of the younger general managers come out of the same school of thought. not just WAR, but the things we all learned in finance through value analysis. The cost benefit analysis of each situation. As such, unless youre a team realistically looking to win a ws, you look at player A vs player b and find that even though a is a better player the numbers they will put up vs b do not equate to enough wins to change your value proposition. Is it better to win 83 games by spending 12 million more then to win 81 games? Thats a hard sell to the person whose money it is then to a guuy at the bar who thinks of it as funny money. When you as a gm/analyst base your own value on the model you created to give you those projections you have to show value to the people paying you too.

The inherent math in moneyball was never predicated on winning a world series, it was built on getting into the playoffs. Short sample sizes arent easy to model.

but two there is this concept that people are an x million dollar ballplayer. The mets carry 1 $25mm ballplayer this year. and even then he only got a 4 year contract. Im glad Arrieta thinks he's worth $25 mm per season and he probably is in a vacuum, but there just arent too many teams that can put that much of their budget (salary pool) into $25 mm pitchers, especially when a couple that can either have one or seem uninterested in the player. Let alone add a second $25mm pitcher.

the 3rd thing is that almost all the back end of all these 6/7 year contracts work out poorly for the teams. By year 4 most teams would rather not have these contracts. Let alone the 10 year contracts. The Albert Pujols/ robinson cano guys who ostensibly have performed (no longer pujols) up to their expectations are going to be getting big money till they are well past their past the prime (years 1-4) prime (4-7)years, which limits the dollars available for younger guys. There are a lot of teams carrying dead money even if some of that is paid by insurance. The mets get 75% of david wrights contract back minus whatever their yearly insurance premium is, so they are still spending at least 6 million a year on him.

4. There are also second generation owners in charge in a bunch of places. You no longer have george stienbrenner or mike ilch in charge of their teams, you have their kids who grew up in them exposed to the business side vs the emotional side. Ilch and steinbrenner wanted to win more then they wanted to run sports businesses. And the longer you own teams across all sports the more then become businesses. Even jerry jones and dan snyder have learned about free agency.

5. There are some good baseball players out there, but none of these guys are really stars. and thats a big difference. Especially when everyone looks at next year and would rather hold their dry powder till then.

I think one thing the players have overlooked is that while the middle of the market seems to be shrinking, things like the reliever market have exploded over the last two years. we went from a 4 year 48mm dollar closer 3 years ago to a 5 year 90mm last year. That value comes from somewhere.

One of the problems in labour negotiations going forward is the money is so big. 20 years ago they were fighting for a big piece of a smaller pie. Now you have a big pie. If youre a reliever and youve got 2 offers of 3 years for 24 or 25 mm. It already life changing money so now youre choosing on things like location of spring training. this isnt mike hampton taking 100mm to go to the rockies anymore. 1 mm a year still comes out to $450k give or take after taxes and fees, when you have 95mm more guaranteed its not so big a deal to fight for every last dollar.

end of rant.

Mack Ade said...

Robb -

You should write here.

Wanna?

Reese Kaplan said...

A few minutes of research to confirm fuzzy memories was all it took to put this piece together. Apparently I'm not the only one questioning the lockstep actions of the owners. The issue is whether it is by design and agreement, or if it is a result of advanced metrics and the expanded size of the playoff field?

Tom Brennan said...

Robb, excellent comments. I agree with Mack, why not write here? Join OUR bullpen.

My guess is that Arrieta could get 1 year, $30 million from some team. But he does not want to assume the injury risk that comes with a 1 year deal himself, so he won't. He and others want the team they sign with to assume that injury risk, AND pay them mega bucks too. Worked out all right for Wright - for the Mets, thank heavens they had insurance.

That's why, whether or not he was an optimal fit in the field, I liked Bruce at 3-$39M. He's not too old, it's not too long, and it is not too steep yearly.

TexasGusCC said...

Yes Robb, give it a shot! Great stuff!

Eddie from Corona said...

Agrees ... Rob you would be a welcomed addition